Stock volatility-risk — live demo
Select a real stock-and-week example below. The model predicts whether the following week was Low, Medium, or High volatility — in your browser, from that moment's price and sentiment features.
- This predicts volatility (how much a stock moves), not direction, and not any course of action. It is a machine-learning demonstration, nothing to trade on.
- The examples are historical; markets change and models fail. No one involved is a licensed financial adviser.
Select a stock & week
Each is a real example from the held-out later-2023 test period.
The notable outcome of this project is not the accuracy — it is that adding news sentiment did not help. See the write-up for why that is the honest, and most useful, result.
What am I looking at?
The line is the stock's closing price over the 21 trading days leading up to the chosen date. From features computed at that point — trailing returns, rolling volatility, volume, and the week's news sentiment — the model predicts the coming week's volatility class. "What actually happened" is the true outcome, so you can see where the prediction is correct and where it is not.